Can Carlos Alcaraz 3-Peat? 2025 Indian Wells Preview
Previewing the 2025 Indian Wells men's draw
Since Indian Wells inaugural tournament in 1974, just two men have won the tournament three consecutive years. Roger Federer did it from 2004-2006, and Novak Djokovic did it from 2014-2016. Carlos Alcaraz will have the chance to join these two at this year’s playing of Indian Wells when he goes for his 3rd consecutive title. Carlos is currently the odds on favorite in the betting markets, and for good reason. With world #1 Jannik Sinner suspended, and many of his other highly ranked peers not in top form, Carlos seems positioned well for yet another run at the title.
With that said, it should be noted that Indian Wells just announced they changed their playing surface from Plexipave to Laykold. Laykold is what both the US Open and Miami Masters use, so expect a quicker playing surface than year’s past. While I’m sure Carlos would have preferred to have stuck with the slower hardcourt surface he dominated on the last two seasons, he’s won both the US Open and Miami in the past so I don’t see this making a huge impact.
Carlos’ repeat title in 2024 broke what had started to become a rather unpredictable Masters event on the men’s side. Following Djokovic’s three-peat from 2014-2016, Indian Wells had a new champion every season for 6 consecutive years. Here are the winners of the last 7 men’s draws:
2017: Roger Federer
2018: Juan Martin del Potro (only Masters title)
2019: Dominic Thiem (only Masters title)
2021: Cam Norrie (only Masters title)
2022: Taylor Fritz (only Masters title)
2023: Carlos Alcaraz
2024: Carlos Alcaraz
If Carlos is unable to repeat in the desert this year, it feels like the ultimate champion could be just about anyone. With that in mind, I’ve broken down the top 16 seeds at this year’s Indian Wells tournament below. I present their Indian Wells history, 2025 playing record, path to the title (by seed), and my overall thoughts on each player.
(1) Alexander Zverev
Indian Wells Record: 13-8 (62%)
Last Year’s IW Result: QF loss to Carlos Alcaraz
Best Ever IW Result: QF - 2021 & 2024
2025 Record: 12-4 (75%)
Path to Win: Bye, Griekspoor, Mpetshi Perricard, Machac/Tiafoe, Tsitsipas, Ruud/Medvedev, Alcaraz
My thoughts: Following a finals run in Australia, Zverev is just 4-3 in his last 7 matches. His history isn’t great at Indian Wells, but this draw feels wide open outside of Carlos so I’m not counting him out. Indian Wells is one of just two Masters 1000 events that he has never made the finals of (the other being Monte Carlo).
(2) Carlos Alcaraz
Indian Wells Record: 16-2 (89%)
Last Year’s IW Result: Champion
Best Ever IW Result: 2x Champ (2023 & 2024)
2025 Record: 11-2 (85%)
Path to Win: Bye, Halys, Shapovalov, Dimitrov, Djokovic, Fritz, Zverev
My thoughts: As mentioned in the article intro, there’s plenty to like about Carlos in this spot. The draw could have been more favorable, but I’m not backing off of him as the favorite.
(3) Taylor Fritz
Indian Wells Record: 20-7 (74%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R16 loss to Holger Rune
Best Ever IW Result: Won title in 2022
2025 Record: 8-4 (67%)
Path to Win: Bye, Baez, Tabilo, Draper, Rublev, Alcaraz, Zverev
My thoughts: Indian Wells is Fritz’s hometown event and the only Masters event he has ever won. Following a strong United Cup (UC) showing to kick off 2025, Fritz’s results have just been ok (4-3 record since UC). While I like him to breeze through his opening two opponents (the same two opening opponents he had here in ‘24), his road gets significantly more challenging from there. Fritz v Draper could be a fun R16 matchup.
(4) Casper Ruud
Indian Wells Record: 7-4 (64%)
Last Year’s IW Result: QF loss to Tommy Paul
Best Ever IW Result: QF - 2024
2025 Record: 10-2 (83%)
Path to Win: Bye, Giron, Popyrin, Musetti, Medvedev/Paul, Zverev, Alcaraz
My thoughts: Outside of a disappointing R2 loss at the Australian Open, it’s been a good start to 2025 for Ruud (9-1 in best of 3 matches). I like Ruud’s draw here and feel he could so some damage. I am pegging him a dark horse.
(5) Daniil Medvedev
Indian Wells Record: 16-7 (70%)
Last Year’s IW Result: Finals loss to Alcaraz
Best Ever IW Result: Finals - 2023 & 2024
2025 Record: 8-5 (62%)
Path to Win: Bye, Bu, Michelsen, Paul, Ruud, Zverev, Alcaraz
My thoughts: Believe it or not, Medvedev is yet to face a top 20 opponent this season. An 8-5 record against opponents outside of the top 20 doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence in me, but Meddy is coming off of back to back finals appearances at Indian Wells so it’s hard to completely rule him out. Potential matchups with America’s Alex Michelsen (hometown kid) and Tommy Paul is not ideal, however.
(6) Novak Djokovic
Indian Wells Record: 51-10 (84%, 5 titles)
Last Year’s IW Result: R32 loss to Luca Nardi
Best Ever IW Result: 5x Champ
2025 Record: 7-3 (70%)
Path to Win: Bye, Kyrgios, Cerundolo, de Minaur, Alcaraz, Fritz, Zverev
My thoughts: I know you are never supposed to say this about Djokovic, but I don’t like him in this spot. Last year was the first year he’s played Indian Wells since 2019, and he hasn’t made the QF’s in Palm Springs since 2016 when he won the event. Pair that with the injury issues that have hampered him this season and I am seeing a lot of red flags.
(7) Andrey Rublev
Indian Wells Record: 9-6 (60%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R32 loss to Jiri Lehecka
Best Ever IW Result: SF - 2022
2025 Record: 9-5 (64%)
Path to Win: Bye, Arnaldi, Nakashima, Shelton, Fritz, Alcaraz, Zverev
My thoughts: After a slow start to the season (0-2), Rublev notched a title in Doha before turning around and losing R1 in Dubai. I’m going to choose to ignore the Dubai result and assume he’ll look more like like his Doha version these next couple of weeks. Arnaldi could be a challenging first opponent, but if he survives that it feels like a QF appearance could be a real possibility.
(8) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Indian Wells Record: 5-5 (50%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R64 loss to Jordan Thompson
Best Ever IW Result: QF - 2021
2025 Record: 8-4 (66%)
Path to Win: Bye, Muller, Berrettini, Rune, Zverev, Ruud/Medvedev, Alcaraz
My thoughts: Following a 3-4 start to this season, Tsitsipas bagged a title in Dubai this past week to inject some confidence back into his previously deflated sails. While I do think there are many reasons for optimism following his Dubai performance, I am doubtful we see a strong performance from him at Indian Wells. Tsitsipas does not have a good history here and draws two tough opening opponents.
(9) Alex de Minaur
Indian Wells Record: 7-6 (54%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R16 loss to Alexander Zverev
Best Ever IW Result: R16 x3 (2021, 2022, & 2024)
2025 Record: 13-4 (76%)
Path to Win: Bye, Sonego, Hurkacz, Djokovic, Alcaraz, Fritz, Zverev
My thoughts: Alex had a strong start to the 2025 season, but is entering Indian Wells on a 2 match losing streak. If he can rebuild some momentum through his opening 2 matches I do think he has a chance to make his first ever QF at Indian Wells as I am doubtful Djokovic is still in the draw come round 4.
(10) Tommy Paul
Indian Wells Record: 11-4 (73%)
Last Year’s IW Result: SF loss to Daniil Medvedev
Best Ever IW Result: SF - 2024
2025 Record: 10-3 (77%)
Path to Win: Bye, Vukic, Lehecka, Medvedev, Ruud, Zverev, Alcaraz
My thoughts: If not for his sprained ankle last season, I still think Tommy makes the 2024 Indian Wells final. He’s had a good start to this season as a whole and is going to need a strong week to defend his SF points from last year. Lucky for him, Indian Wells has been his best Masters event throughout his career, and I don’t hate this draw for Tommy. Consider him another dark horse.
(11) Ben Shelton
Indian Wells Record: 3-2 (60%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R16 loss to Jannik Sinner
Best Ever IW Result: R16 - 2024
2025 Record: 7-4 (64%)
Path to Win: Bye, Tien, Khachanov, Rublev, Fritz, Alcaraz, Zverev
My thoughts: Ben is 2-3 this year in best of 3 set matches. Up to this point in his career he’s played in 18 Masters events and made the QF’s just twice (he’s made 3 QF’s in 10 major appearances). This is all a long way of saying I don’t have big expectations for Ben here. I would imagine he will appreciate the faster surface, but I can’t find much else to back up the idea of him making a run here.
(12) Holger Rune
Indian Wells Record: 5-4 (56%)
Last Year’s IW Result: QF loss to Daniil Medvedev
Best Ever IW Result: QF - 2024
2025 Record: 6-6 (50%)
Path to Win: Bye, Moutet, Humbert, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Ruud, Alcaraz
My thoughts: Holger is 3-4 in his last 7 matches. I’d love to feel stronger about him in this spot, but there’s just not much to go off of from a recent results standpoint. His draw isn’t terrible, so perhaps if he picks up a couple of early wins he can build momentum - that’s my most optimistic case for him.
(13) Jack Draper
Indian Wells Record: 3-2 (60%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R96 loss to Christopher O’Connell
Best Ever IW Result: R16 - 2023
2025 Record: 7-2 (78%)
Path to Win: Bye, Fonseca, FAA, Fritz, Rublev, Alcaraz, Zverev
My thoughts: Draper is 14-3 since Vienna last year and playing some good tennis. With that said, I can’t help but feel he got an absolute nightmare of a draw. Fonseca, FAA, and Fritz in his opening 3 matches is far from ideal. But hey, Draper vs Fonseca is a serious popcorn match early on in the tournament.
(14) Grigor Dimitrov
Indian Wells Record: 14-11 (56%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R16 loss to Daniil Medvedev
Best Ever IW Result: SF - 2021
2025 Record: 0-3
Path to Win: Bye, Borges, Korda, Alcaraz, Djokovic, Fritz, Zverev
My thoughts: Dimitrov is giving Indian Wells a go after having been injured the first 2 months of the season. My hunch is that he is simply hoping to gain some confidence before he heads to Miami where he is defending last year’s finals points.
(15) Lorenzo Musetti
Indian Wells Record: 2-4 (33%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R32 loss to Holger Rune
Best Ever IW Result: R32 - 2024
2025 Record: 4-2 (67%)
Path to Win: Bye, Opelka, Fils, Ruud, Medvedev, Zverev, Alcaraz
My thoughts: Coming off a strong 2024 season, Musetti has had a quieter start to 2025. He hasn’t played since February 13th in Argentina due to injury, so this is a tough spot to predict for Musetti. His injury coupled with a poor overall Indian Wells record doesn’t have me feeling overly optimistic.
(16) Frances Tiafoe
Indian Wells Record: 9-8 (53%)
Last Year’s IW Result: R32 loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas
Best Ever IW Result: SF - 2023
2025 Record: 4-4 (50%)
Path to Win: Bye, Bautista Agut, Machac, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Alcaraz
My thoughts: Frances is 7-9 since his SF loss at last year’s US Open and hasn’t defeated an opponent ranked inside of the top 40 in that timespan either. He actually entered last year’s Indian Wells in a very similar position and bowed out early. I’m not seeing any reason to think this year will be different.
Final Thoughts
My prediction is that Carlos Alcaraz wins his third consecutive Indian Wells title. As mentioned above, I’ll also be keeping a close eye on Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul when the action starts this week. If Carlos is unable to three-peat, it feels like someone else could be picking up a career defining win.
Enjoy the tennis ahead and thanks for reading,
The Tennis Guy